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Free risk check · real data

What is a 72-year-old man in Estonia most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
72
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
4.0%
1 in 25
Next 10 years
44%
about 4 in 10
Life expectancy
84
about 12 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01High blood pressure & other circulatory disease17%
    7.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 20%
  2. 02Heart attack & coronary heart disease17%
    7.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 19%
  3. 03Lung cancer7.8%
    3.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.1%
  4. 04Stroke6.6%
    2.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.9%
  5. 05Heart failure & other heart disease5.5%
    2.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.7%
  6. 06Prostate cancer4.7%
    2.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.1%
  7. 07Colorectal cancer4.1%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
  8. 08Other cancers3.2%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
Show the other 36 causes34% together
  1. 09COPD & chronic lung disease2.7%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
  2. 10Leukaemia & lymphoma2.6%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  3. 11Pneumonia & flu2.5%
    1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  4. 12Stomach cancer2.2%
    0.97% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  5. 13Other digestive disease2.2%
    0.96% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  6. 14Pancreatic cancer2.0%
    0.87% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  7. 15Diabetes1.9%
    0.83% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  8. 16Bladder cancer1.4%
    0.63% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  9. 17Mouth, throat & larynx cancer1.4%
    0.60% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.82%
  10. 18Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)1.3%
    0.59% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.87%
  11. 19Other causes1.2%
    0.53% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  12. 20Kidney cancer1.2%
    0.52% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  13. 21Dementia & Alzheimer's1.1%
    0.50% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  14. 22Liver cancer1.0%
    0.46% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.67%
  15. 23Parkinson's disease1.0%
    0.44% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.91%
  16. 24Oesophageal cancer0.95%
    0.42% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.51%
  17. 25COVID-190.89%
    0.39% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  18. 26Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.85%
    0.37% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.43%
  19. 27Suicide0.78%
    0.35% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.70%
  20. 28Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.78%
    0.34% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.70%
  21. 29Falls0.66%
    0.29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.74%
  22. 30Other accidents0.63%
    0.28% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.51%
  23. 31Kidney disease0.59%
    0.26% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.79%
  24. 32Other lung disease0.53%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.51%
  25. 33Brain cancer0.43%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
  26. 34Alcohol use disorder0.30%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  27. 35Accidental poisoning & overdose0.29%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  28. 36Melanoma (skin cancer)0.26%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.22%
  29. 37Drowning0.24%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  30. 38Road accidents0.18%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  31. 39Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.18%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  32. 40Other mental health conditions0.04%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  33. 41Homicide0.04%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  34. 42Congenital conditions0.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  35. 43Drug use disorder0.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  36. 44Breast cancer<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call the emotional support line on 116 123 (10:00–24:00) — free and confidential; at other times, call 112 (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 72-year-old man in Estonia, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Estonia (2018, 2019 and 2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 70–74 in Estonia

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 72-year-old man in Estonia

If you smoke or used to:

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Based on Estonian Health Insurance Fund (Tervisekassa) screening and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal
Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.