Free risk check · real data

What is a 72-year-old man in Poland most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country

Age

Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months

3.7%

1 in 27

Next 10 years

42%

about 4 in 10

Life expectancy

about 12 more years on average

Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

01Heart attack & coronary heart disease16%
6.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 21%
02Lung cancer8.4%
3.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.2%
03Stroke7.9%
3.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.9%
04High blood pressure & other circulatory disease7.5%
3.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.3%
05Other cancers6.7%
2.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.9%
06Heart failure & other heart disease6.6%
2.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.7%
07Pneumonia & flu6.3%
2.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.7%
08Colorectal cancer4.5%
1.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%

Show the other 36 causes36% together

09Prostate cancer4.4%
1.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.3%
10Other digestive disease2.9%
1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
11COPD & chronic lung disease2.5%
1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
12Diabetes2.5%
1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
13Bladder cancer2.1%
0.90% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
14Leukaemia & lymphoma2.0%
0.85% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
15Stomach cancer1.7%
0.72% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
16Other causes1.7%
0.69% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
17Mouth, throat & larynx cancer1.4%
0.58% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.88%
18Pancreatic cancer1.4%
0.58% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.89%
19Other lung disease1.1%
0.48% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
20COVID-191.0%
0.44% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
21Falls1.0%
0.44% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
22Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.98%
0.41% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.53%
23Dementia & Alzheimer's0.93%
0.39% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
24Kidney cancer0.90%
0.38% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.63%
25Kidney disease0.82%
0.35% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.91%
26Liver cancer0.72%
0.30% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.47%
27Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.66%
0.28% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.44%
28Parkinson's disease0.64%
0.27% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.60%
29Brain cancer0.62%
0.26% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.40%
30Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.53%
0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.53%
31Oesophageal cancer0.52%
0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.32%
32Suicide0.49%
0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.34%
33Other accidents0.49%
0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.47%
34Melanoma (skin cancer)0.44%
0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.40%
35Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.42%
0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.32%
36Alcohol use disorder0.40%
0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.19%
37Road accidents0.29%
0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.20%
38Accidental poisoning & overdose0.14%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
39Other mental health conditions0.10%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
40Drowning0.05%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
41Breast cancer0.04%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
42Homicide<0.01%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
43Congenital conditions<0.01%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
44Drug use disorder<0.01%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 800 70 22 22, the 24-hour support line for adults in crisis — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 72-year-old man in Poland, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Poland (2023–2024), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 70–74 in Poland

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 72-year-old man in Poland

Blood pressure check
every 3 years from 50 — free in the NFZ “Moje Zdrowie” health check (every 5 years to 49, every 3 years from 50); yearly if it's raised
Flu vaccine
every autumn — free from 65
Cholesterol & heart-risk check
from 40 (men) / 50 (women) — free in the NFZ “Moje Zdrowie” health check (every 5 years to 49, every 3 years from 50)
Pneumonia vaccine (pneumococcal)
from 65 — free with heart, lung, liver or kidney disease, diabetes or weakened immunity; ask your doctor
Blood sugar test (diabetes)
every 3 years from 35 — fasting glucose is free in the NFZ “Moje Zdrowie” health check (every 5 years to 49, every 3 years from 50)

If you smoke or used to:

Lung cancer screening (low-dose CT)
ages 50–74 with 20+ pack-years (now or in the past) — free low-dose CT, no referral needed
Aortic aneurysm scan (ultrasound)
once, men 65+ who have ever smoked · ask your doctor

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Bowel cancer in the family — earlier bowel check
often a colonoscopy every 5 years from 40 (or 10 years before your relative's age at diagnosis, if earlier) · ask your doctor

Based on NFZ screening programmes and the “Moje Zdrowie” health check. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal

Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.