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What is a 77-year-old man in the United States most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
77
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
4.0%
1 in 25
Next 10 years
51%
about 5 in 10
Life expectancy
87
about 10 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart attack & coronary heart disease14%
    7.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 15%
  2. 02Dementia & Alzheimer's7.8%
    3.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.8%
  3. 03Heart failure & other heart disease7.8%
    3.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.2%
  4. 04Stroke5.6%
    2.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.1%
  5. 05High blood pressure & other circulatory disease5.5%
    2.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.3%
  6. 06COPD & chronic lung disease5.4%
    2.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.7%
  7. 07Lung cancer4.4%
    2.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  8. 08Other causes4.0%
    2.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.3%
Show the other 37 causes46% together
  1. 09Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)3.6%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
  2. 10Other cancers3.6%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  3. 11Diabetes3.1%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  4. 12Other lung disease3.1%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  5. 13Prostate cancer3.0%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  6. 14Parkinson's disease2.9%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
  7. 15Leukaemia & lymphoma2.6%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  8. 16Kidney disease2.3%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  9. 17Other digestive disease2.2%
    1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  10. 18Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.1%
    1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  11. 19Falls2.0%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  12. 20COVID-191.9%
    0.94% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  13. 21Pneumonia & flu1.7%
    0.88% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  14. 22Pancreatic cancer1.6%
    0.80% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  15. 23Colorectal cancer1.5%
    0.77% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  16. 24Bladder cancer1.1%
    0.56% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  17. 25Liver cancer0.98%
    0.49% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.69%
  18. 26Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.73%
    0.37% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.49%
  19. 27Oesophageal cancer0.69%
    0.35% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.49%
  20. 28Suicide0.64%
    0.32% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.47%
  21. 29Other accidents0.61%
    0.31% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.57%
  22. 30Kidney cancer0.59%
    0.30% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.47%
  23. 31Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.57%
    0.29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.44%
  24. 32Road accidents0.47%
    0.24% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.35%
  25. 33Brain cancer0.42%
    0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.29%
  26. 34Stomach cancer0.38%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
  27. 35Melanoma (skin cancer)0.37%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.32%
  28. 36Other mental health conditions0.12%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  29. 37Alcohol use disorder0.12%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  30. 38Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.11%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  31. 39Accidental poisoning & overdose0.09%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  32. 40Congenital conditions0.06%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  33. 41Drowning0.05%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  34. 42Homicide0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  35. 43Breast cancer0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  36. 44Drug use disorder0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  37. 45Complications around birth<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call or text 988, the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 77-year-old man in the United States, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for the United States (2023–2024), CDC. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Full page with comparisons: men aged 75–79 in the United States

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 77-year-old man in the United States

If you smoke or used to:

Based on USPSTF recommendations and the CDC adult immunization schedule. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal
Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.