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What is an 82-year-old woman in Bulgaria most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
82
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
6.9%
1 in 14
Next 10 years
75%
about 7 in 10
Life expectancy
89
about 7 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Stroke27%
    20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 27%
  2. 02Heart failure & other heart disease26%
    19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 27%
  3. 03Heart attack & coronary heart disease15%
    11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 14%
  4. 04High blood pressure & other circulatory disease14%
    11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 15%
  5. 05Other digestive disease2.1%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  6. 06Pneumonia & flu1.8%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  7. 07Kidney disease1.7%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  8. 08Diabetes1.4%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
Show the other 35 causes12% together
  1. 09Colorectal cancer1.4%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  2. 10Other lung disease1.3%
    0.97% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  3. 11Breast cancer1.1%
    0.83% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.97%
  4. 12COVID-190.95%
    0.71% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.94%
  5. 13Other cancers0.94%
    0.71% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.83%
  6. 14COPD & chronic lung disease0.80%
    0.60% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.82%
  7. 15Uterine & ovarian cancer0.64%
    0.48% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.53%
  8. 16Pancreatic cancer0.48%
    0.36% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.41%
  9. 17Lung cancer0.46%
    0.35% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.38%
  10. 18Stomach cancer0.43%
    0.32% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.38%
  11. 19Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.34%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
  12. 20Falls0.34%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
  13. 21Liver cancer0.30%
    0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.24%
  14. 22Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.27%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.24%
  15. 23Leukaemia & lymphoma0.26%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.20%
  16. 24Other causes0.18%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  17. 25Bladder cancer0.18%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  18. 26Parkinson's disease0.17%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  19. 27Cervical cancer0.15%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  20. 28Brain cancer0.15%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  21. 29Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.15%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
  22. 30Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.13%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  23. 31Kidney cancer0.13%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  24. 32Dementia & Alzheimer's0.13%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  25. 33Other accidents0.10%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  26. 34Melanoma (skin cancer)0.08%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  27. 35Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.06%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  28. 36Suicide0.06%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  29. 37Road accidents0.05%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  30. 38Oesophageal cancer0.04%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  31. 39Accidental poisoning & overdose0.02%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  32. 40Drowning0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  33. 41Homicide<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  34. 42Other mental health conditions<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  35. 43Congenital conditions<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, free, confidential support is available.

For people like an 82-year-old woman in Bulgaria, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Bulgaria (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Full page with comparisons: women aged 80–84 in Bulgaria

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 82-year-old woman in Bulgaria

Based on Bulgaria's preventive check-up (NZOK, Ordinance No. 8) and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

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