Odainn
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What is an 82-year-old woman in Belarus most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
82
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
7.2%
1 in 14
Next 10 years
77%
about 8 in 10
Life expectancy
89
about 7 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart attack & coronary heart disease37%
    28% chance over 10 years · lifetime 38%
  2. 02Stroke26%
    20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 26%
  3. 03High blood pressure & other circulatory disease11%
    8.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 11%
  4. 04Dementia & Alzheimer's7.5%
    5.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.7%
  5. 05Heart failure & other heart disease4.0%
    3.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
  6. 06Other digestive disease1.7%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  7. 07Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)1.5%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  8. 08Other cancers1.4%
    1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
Show the other 34 causes10% together
  1. 09Parkinson's disease1.3%
    0.98% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  2. 10Colorectal cancer1.1%
    0.83% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.94%
  3. 11Breast cancer0.88%
    0.68% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.78%
  4. 12Pancreatic cancer0.61%
    0.47% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.53%
  5. 13Kidney disease0.60%
    0.46% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.58%
  6. 14Uterine & ovarian cancer0.58%
    0.44% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.48%
  7. 15Leukaemia & lymphoma0.54%
    0.42% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.46%
  8. 16Falls0.53%
    0.41% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.54%
  9. 17Pneumonia & flu0.48%
    0.37% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.47%
  10. 18Lung cancer0.44%
    0.34% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.38%
  11. 19Stomach cancer0.42%
    0.33% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.38%
  12. 20Other causes0.33%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
  13. 21Other accidents0.28%
    0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.27%
  14. 22Kidney cancer0.27%
    0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.24%
  15. 23Bladder cancer0.19%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  16. 24Diabetes0.19%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
  17. 25Liver cancer0.18%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  18. 26Brain cancer0.15%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  19. 27COPD & chronic lung disease0.14%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  20. 28Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.13%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  21. 29Cervical cancer0.13%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  22. 30Suicide0.13%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  23. 31Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.08%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
  24. 32Accidental poisoning & overdose0.08%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
  25. 33Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.07%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  26. 34Other mental health conditions0.06%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  27. 35Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.05%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  28. 36Oesophageal cancer0.05%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  29. 37Other lung disease0.04%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  30. 38Road accidents0.04%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  31. 39Alcohol use disorder0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  32. 40Congenital conditions0.02%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  33. 41Homicide0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  34. 42Drowning0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 133, the national psychological emergency line — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

Causes estimated. Belarus publishes deaths by age and deaths by cause, but not the two together, so the split by cause is Odainn's estimate: Belstat's official 2018 totals, spread by the age and cause patterns of Lithuania and Latvia. Life expectancy and the odds of dying are official. How

For people like an 82-year-old woman in Belarus, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Belarus (2018), Belstat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: women aged 80–84 in Belarus

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 82-year-old woman in Belarus

Based on the Belarus Ministry of Health dispensary check (2024) and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

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