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Free risk check · real data

What is an 82-year-old man in Lithuania most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
82
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
8.5%
1 in 12
Next 10 years
77%
about 8 in 10
Life expectancy
89
about 7 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart attack & coronary heart disease38%
    29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 41%
  2. 02Stroke14%
    11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 13%
  3. 03High blood pressure & other circulatory disease6.7%
    5.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.0%
  4. 04Prostate cancer5.3%
    4.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.1%
  5. 05Colorectal cancer3.0%
    2.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  6. 06COVID-192.7%
    2.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  7. 07Other cancers2.6%
    2.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  8. 08Dementia & Alzheimer's2.4%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
Show the other 33 causes25% together
  1. 09Lung cancer2.2%
    1.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  2. 10Other digestive disease2.2%
    1.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  3. 11Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.0%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  4. 12COPD & chronic lung disease1.8%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  5. 13Pneumonia & flu1.8%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  6. 14Stomach cancer1.6%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  7. 15Heart failure & other heart disease1.3%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  8. 16Bladder cancer1.3%
    0.99% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  9. 17Falls1.2%
    0.91% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  10. 18Diabetes1.1%
    0.86% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  11. 19Leukaemia & lymphoma1.1%
    0.83% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.96%
  12. 20Other causes0.95%
    0.73% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.90%
  13. 21Parkinson's disease0.93%
    0.72% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.92%
  14. 22Pancreatic cancer0.90%
    0.69% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.80%
  15. 23Kidney disease0.62%
    0.47% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.58%
  16. 24Kidney cancer0.58%
    0.44% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.48%
  17. 25Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.47%
    0.36% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.40%
  18. 26Other accidents0.42%
    0.32% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.41%
  19. 27Suicide0.39%
    0.30% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.37%
  20. 28Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.39%
    0.30% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.33%
  21. 29Liver cancer0.33%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  22. 30Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.30%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.24%
  23. 31Other lung disease0.29%
    0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.29%
  24. 32Melanoma (skin cancer)0.22%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  25. 33Oesophageal cancer0.21%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
  26. 34Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.19%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  27. 35Brain cancer0.16%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  28. 36Road accidents0.14%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  29. 37Accidental poisoning & overdose0.09%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  30. 38Alcohol use disorder0.01%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  31. 39Congenital conditions0.01%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  32. 40Drowning0.01%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  33. 41Homicide0.01%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call Vilties linija on 116 123 — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like an 82-year-old man in Lithuania, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Lithuania (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 80–84 in Lithuania

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 82-year-old man in Lithuania

If you smoke or used to:

Based on Lithuanian national screening programmes and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal
Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.