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What is an 82-year-old man in Poland most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
82
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
8.1%
1 in 12
Next 10 years
75%
about 7 in 10
Life expectancy
89
about 7 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart attack & coronary heart disease22%
    17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 24%
  2. 02High blood pressure & other circulatory disease9.8%
    7.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 11%
  3. 03Pneumonia & flu8.4%
    6.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.7%
  4. 04Heart failure & other heart disease8.1%
    6.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.5%
  5. 05Stroke8.1%
    6.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.9%
  6. 06Other cancers5.7%
    4.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.3%
  7. 07Prostate cancer4.5%
    3.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.2%
  8. 08Lung cancer3.6%
    2.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
Show the other 36 causes29% together
  1. 09Colorectal cancer3.1%
    2.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  2. 10Other digestive disease2.7%
    2.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  3. 11Diabetes2.3%
    1.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  4. 12Other causes2.0%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  5. 13COPD & chronic lung disease1.9%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  6. 14Bladder cancer1.9%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  7. 15Dementia & Alzheimer's1.6%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  8. 16Falls1.5%
    1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  9. 17COVID-191.5%
    1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  10. 18Leukaemia & lymphoma1.4%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  11. 19Other lung disease1.1%
    0.85% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  12. 20Stomach cancer1.1%
    0.83% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.95%
  13. 21Kidney disease0.97%
    0.72% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.97%
  14. 22Parkinson's disease0.68%
    0.50% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.58%
  15. 23Pancreatic cancer0.64%
    0.48% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.54%
  16. 24Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.59%
    0.44% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.52%
  17. 25Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.56%
    0.42% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.53%
  18. 26Kidney cancer0.51%
    0.38% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.43%
  19. 27Other accidents0.45%
    0.34% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.46%
  20. 28Melanoma (skin cancer)0.39%
    0.29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.37%
  21. 29Liver cancer0.34%
    0.26% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.28%
  22. 30Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.34%
    0.26% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.29%
  23. 31Brain cancer0.28%
    0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.24%
  24. 32Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.27%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.25%
  25. 33Suicide0.26%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.23%
  26. 34Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.22%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.19%
  27. 35Oesophageal cancer0.21%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  28. 36Road accidents0.15%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  29. 37Alcohol use disorder0.04%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  30. 38Accidental poisoning & overdose0.04%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  31. 39Other mental health conditions0.04%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  32. 40Breast cancer0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  33. 41Drowning0.02%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  34. 42Homicide0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  35. 43Congenital conditions<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  36. 44Drug use disorder<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 800 70 22 22, the 24-hour support line for adults in crisis — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like an 82-year-old man in Poland, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Poland (2023–2024), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 80–84 in Poland

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 82-year-old man in Poland

If you smoke or used to:

Based on NFZ screening programmes and the “Moje Zdrowie” health check. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal
Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.