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Free risk check · real data

What is an 82-year-old woman in Portugal most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
82
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
4.2%
1 in 24
Next 10 years
60%
about 6 in 10
Life expectancy
91
about 9 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Dementia & Alzheimer's12%
    7.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 13%
  2. 02Heart failure & other heart disease11%
    6.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 12%
  3. 03Stroke10%
    6.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 10%
  4. 04High blood pressure & other circulatory disease6.9%
    4.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.7%
  5. 05Other causes6.7%
    4.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.5%
  6. 06Other lung disease5.5%
    3.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.1%
  7. 07Pneumonia & flu5.4%
    3.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.0%
  8. 08Heart attack & coronary heart disease4.7%
    2.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.7%
Show the other 36 causes38% together
  1. 09Other digestive disease4.1%
    2.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.8%
  2. 10Diabetes3.9%
    2.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.7%
  3. 11Other cancers3.0%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  4. 12Kidney disease2.6%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  5. 13Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.4%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  6. 14COVID-192.4%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  7. 15Colorectal cancer2.3%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  8. 16COPD & chronic lung disease2.0%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  9. 17Breast cancer1.9%
    1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  10. 18Other accidents1.8%
    1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  11. 19Leukaemia & lymphoma1.4%
    0.85% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  12. 20Parkinson's disease1.3%
    0.78% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  13. 21Pancreatic cancer1.1%
    0.66% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.86%
  14. 22Stomach cancer1.1%
    0.65% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.81%
  15. 23Lung cancer1.0%
    0.60% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.75%
  16. 24Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.99%
    0.59% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.83%
  17. 25Uterine & ovarian cancer0.82%
    0.49% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.62%
  18. 26Falls0.82%
    0.49% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.78%
  19. 27Liver cancer0.42%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
  20. 28Bladder cancer0.42%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.38%
  21. 29Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.30%
    0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
  22. 30Brain cancer0.28%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.22%
  23. 31Kidney cancer0.26%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.20%
  24. 32Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.23%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  25. 33Melanoma (skin cancer)0.14%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  26. 34Cervical cancer0.11%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  27. 35Other mental health conditions0.10%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  28. 36Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.09%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
  29. 37Road accidents0.09%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
  30. 38Suicide0.08%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  31. 39Oesophageal cancer0.08%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
  32. 40Accidental poisoning & overdose0.04%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  33. 41Congenital conditions0.02%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  34. 42Homicide0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  35. 43Alcohol use disorder<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  36. 44Drowning<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 1411, the national suicide prevention line — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like an 82-year-old woman in Portugal, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Portugal (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: women aged 80–84 in Portugal

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 82-year-old woman in Portugal

Based on the Portuguese DGS screening programmes and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

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