Odainn
Free risk check · real data

What is an 87-year-old man in Spain most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
87
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
10%
1 in 10
Next 10 years
86%
about 9 in 10
Life expectancy
93
about 6 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart failure & other heart disease12%
    10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 12%
  2. 02Dementia & Alzheimer's8.8%
    7.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.8%
  3. 03Other lung disease7.5%
    6.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.7%
  4. 04Heart attack & coronary heart disease6.6%
    5.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.7%
  5. 05Other causes6.3%
    5.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.5%
  6. 06High blood pressure & other circulatory disease6.1%
    5.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.3%
  7. 07Stroke5.4%
    4.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.4%
  8. 08COPD & chronic lung disease4.7%
    4.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.6%
Show the other 35 causes43% together
  1. 09Other digestive disease4.6%
    4.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.6%
  2. 10Pneumonia & flu4.4%
    3.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.5%
  3. 11Prostate cancer3.4%
    3.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  4. 12Other cancers3.3%
    2.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  5. 13Colorectal cancer3.0%
    2.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  6. 14Kidney disease3.0%
    2.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  7. 15COVID-192.8%
    2.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  8. 16Diabetes2.8%
    2.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  9. 17Lung cancer2.3%
    2.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  10. 18Bladder cancer1.6%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  11. 19Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.5%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  12. 20Other accidents1.5%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  13. 21Parkinson's disease1.4%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  14. 22Leukaemia & lymphoma1.3%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  15. 23Falls1.0%
    0.87% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  16. 24Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.98%
    0.84% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.93%
  17. 25Pancreatic cancer0.70%
    0.60% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.65%
  18. 26Stomach cancer0.65%
    0.56% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.60%
  19. 27Liver cancer0.56%
    0.48% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.52%
  20. 28Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.41%
    0.35% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.39%
  21. 29Kidney cancer0.36%
    0.31% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.35%
  22. 30Suicide0.26%
    0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.24%
  23. 31Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.21%
    0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.19%
  24. 32Oesophageal cancer0.19%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
  25. 33Melanoma (skin cancer)0.18%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
  26. 34Brain cancer0.16%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  27. 35Other mental health conditions0.08%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  28. 36Road accidents0.07%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  29. 37Accidental poisoning & overdose0.04%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  30. 38Congenital conditions0.04%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  31. 39Breast cancer0.03%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  32. 40Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.01%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  33. 41Drowning0.01%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  34. 42Alcohol use disorder<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  35. 43Homicide<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 024, the suicide prevention line — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like an 87-year-old man in Spain, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Spain (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 85–89 in Spain

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 87-year-old man in Spain

If you smoke or used to:

Based on the Spanish National Health System screening programmes (regions vary) and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal
Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.