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Free risk check · real data

What is an 87-year-old woman in Italy most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
87
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
8.3%
1 in 12
Next 10 years
83%
about 8 in 10
Life expectancy
93
about 6 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01High blood pressure & other circulatory disease13%
    11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 14%
  2. 02Heart failure & other heart disease12%
    10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 12%
  3. 03Stroke11%
    8.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 11%
  4. 04Dementia & Alzheimer's9.4%
    7.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.4%
  5. 05Heart attack & coronary heart disease8.6%
    7.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.9%
  6. 06Other causes4.7%
    3.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.7%
  7. 07Diabetes4.0%
    3.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.9%
  8. 08COPD & chronic lung disease3.3%
    2.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.3%
Show the other 37 causes34% together
  1. 09Pneumonia & flu3.1%
    2.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  2. 10Other digestive disease3.1%
    2.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  3. 11Other cancers3.0%
    2.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  4. 12Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.9%
    2.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  5. 13Other accidents2.7%
    2.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  6. 14Other lung disease2.5%
    2.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
  7. 15COVID-192.4%
    2.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  8. 16Kidney disease2.1%
    1.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  9. 17Breast cancer1.8%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  10. 18Colorectal cancer1.6%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  11. 19Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)1.1%
    0.91% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  12. 20Parkinson's disease1.1%
    0.89% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.99%
  13. 21Lung cancer1.0%
    0.85% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.91%
  14. 22Leukaemia & lymphoma0.99%
    0.82% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.89%
  15. 23Pancreatic cancer0.96%
    0.79% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.86%
  16. 24Falls0.86%
    0.71% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.86%
  17. 25Stomach cancer0.57%
    0.47% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.51%
  18. 26Uterine & ovarian cancer0.50%
    0.42% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.45%
  19. 27Liver cancer0.41%
    0.34% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.36%
  20. 28Bladder cancer0.30%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.28%
  21. 29Kidney cancer0.22%
    0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  22. 30Other mental health conditions0.21%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.20%
  23. 31Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.20%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  24. 32Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.19%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  25. 33Brain cancer0.12%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  26. 34Melanoma (skin cancer)0.11%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  27. 35Oesophageal cancer0.06%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  28. 36Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.06%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  29. 37Cervical cancer0.03%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  30. 38Road accidents0.03%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  31. 39Accidental poisoning & overdose0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  32. 40Congenital conditions0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  33. 41Suicide0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  34. 42Drowning<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  35. 43Homicide<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  36. 44Alcohol use disorder<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  37. 45Drug use disorder<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call Telefono Amico on 02 2327 2327 (normal call rate) — confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like an 87-year-old woman in Italy, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Italy (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: women aged 85–89 in Italy

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 87-year-old woman in Italy

Based on the Italian LEA screening programmes (regions vary) and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal
Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.