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Free risk check · real data

What is an 87-year-old man in Norway most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
87
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
11%
1 in 9
Next 10 years
89%
about 9 in 10
Life expectancy
92
about 5 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Dementia & Alzheimer's12%
    11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 12%
  2. 02Heart failure & other heart disease10%
    9.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 11%
  3. 03Heart attack & coronary heart disease8.7%
    7.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.9%
  4. 04Pneumonia & flu6.1%
    5.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.4%
  5. 05Prostate cancer5.8%
    5.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.6%
  6. 06COVID-195.1%
    4.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.2%
  7. 07COPD & chronic lung disease5.0%
    4.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.8%
  8. 08Other causes4.8%
    4.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.0%
Show the other 34 causes42% together
  1. 09High blood pressure & other circulatory disease4.8%
    4.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.0%
  2. 10Stroke4.4%
    3.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.3%
  3. 11Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)3.7%
    3.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.7%
  4. 12Other cancers3.0%
    2.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  5. 13Falls2.7%
    2.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  6. 14Kidney disease2.6%
    2.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  7. 15Other digestive disease2.4%
    2.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  8. 16Colorectal cancer2.3%
    2.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  9. 17Other accidents2.1%
    1.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  10. 18Lung cancer1.9%
    1.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  11. 19Diabetes1.9%
    1.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  12. 20Other lung disease1.7%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  13. 21Leukaemia & lymphoma1.5%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  14. 22Parkinson's disease1.1%
    0.99% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  15. 23Bladder cancer1.1%
    0.98% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  16. 24Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.82%
    0.73% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.78%
  17. 25Pancreatic cancer0.63%
    0.57% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.60%
  18. 26Stomach cancer0.57%
    0.51% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.54%
  19. 27Melanoma (skin cancer)0.51%
    0.46% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.48%
  20. 28Other mental health conditions0.39%
    0.35% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.41%
  21. 29Kidney cancer0.35%
    0.31% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.33%
  22. 30Liver cancer0.35%
    0.31% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.32%
  23. 31Brain cancer0.21%
    0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  24. 32Suicide0.19%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
  25. 33Oesophageal cancer0.17%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  26. 34Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.14%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
  27. 35Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.11%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  28. 36Road accidents0.09%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  29. 37Alcohol use disorder0.08%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  30. 38Congenital conditions0.04%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  31. 39Breast cancer0.03%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  32. 40Accidental poisoning & overdose0.03%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  33. 41Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.01%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  34. 42Drowning<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call Mental Helse on 116 123 — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like an 87-year-old man in Norway, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Norway (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Full page with comparisons: men aged 85–89 in Norway

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 87-year-old man in Norway

If you smoke or used to:

Based on Norwegian national screening programmes and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal
Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.