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What is an 87-year-old woman in Türkiye most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
87
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
11%
1 in 9
Next 10 years
85%
about 8 in 10
Life expectancy
93
about 6 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart attack & coronary heart disease19%
    16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 20%
  2. 02Heart failure & other heart disease13%
    11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 13%
  3. 03Pneumonia & flu11%
    9.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 11%
  4. 04High blood pressure & other circulatory disease9.4%
    8.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.6%
  5. 05Stroke9.3%
    7.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.2%
  6. 06Dementia & Alzheimer's6.8%
    5.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.9%
  7. 07COPD & chronic lung disease4.4%
    3.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.3%
  8. 08Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)4.3%
    3.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.2%
Show the other 35 causes22% together
  1. 09Kidney disease4.0%
    3.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.9%
  2. 10Other causes3.8%
    3.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.9%
  3. 11Diabetes3.5%
    3.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  4. 12Other digestive disease2.0%
    1.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  5. 13Other lung disease1.5%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  6. 14Falls1.2%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  7. 15Other accidents0.79%
    0.67% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.77%
  8. 16Other cancers0.67%
    0.57% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.64%
  9. 17Colorectal cancer0.58%
    0.49% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.55%
  10. 18Breast cancer0.56%
    0.47% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.54%
  11. 19Lung cancer0.52%
    0.44% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.49%
  12. 20COVID-190.40%
    0.34% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.39%
  13. 21Pancreatic cancer0.39%
    0.33% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.36%
  14. 22Stomach cancer0.32%
    0.27% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.29%
  15. 23Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.30%
    0.26% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.29%
  16. 24Leukaemia & lymphoma0.29%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  17. 25Parkinson's disease0.27%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.25%
  18. 26Uterine & ovarian cancer0.23%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  19. 27Liver cancer0.16%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  20. 28Brain cancer0.12%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  21. 29Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.12%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  22. 30Bladder cancer0.11%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  23. 31Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.08%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  24. 32Melanoma (skin cancer)0.08%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  25. 33Other mental health conditions0.06%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  26. 34Kidney cancer0.05%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  27. 35Oesophageal cancer0.04%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  28. 36Road accidents0.04%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  29. 37Suicide0.03%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  30. 38Cervical cancer0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  31. 39Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  32. 40Accidental poisoning & overdose0.02%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  33. 41Congenital conditions0.01%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  34. 42Drowning0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  35. 43Drug use disorder<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, free, confidential support is available.

About these numbers. Türkiye's figures are for 2023, the year of the February earthquakes. About 50,000 earthquake deaths are counted under “other accidents”, so that cause is far higher than in an ordinary year — above all for young adults.

For people like an 87-year-old woman in Türkiye, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Türkiye (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: women aged 85–89 in Türkiye

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 87-year-old woman in Türkiye

Based on Türkiye's national cancer screening programmes (Ministry of Health) and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal
Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.