Odainn
Free risk check · real data

What is a 17-year-old boy in the United States most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
17
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
0.08%
1 in 1,296
Next 10 years
1.2%
1 in 86
Life expectancy
77
about 60 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's road accidents.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Road accidents21%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  2. 02Suicide20%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  3. 03Accidental poisoning & overdose17%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  4. 04Homicide17%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.70%
  5. 05Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)2.9%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  6. 06Other accidents2.0%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.76%
  7. 07Heart failure & other heart disease1.8%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.8%
  8. 08Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)1.8%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
Show the other 37 causes16% together
  1. 09Other cancers1.7%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  2. 10Other causes1.5%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.9%
  3. 11Drowning1.5%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  4. 12High blood pressure & other circulatory disease0.98%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.0%
  5. 13Congenital conditions0.97%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  6. 14Leukaemia & lymphoma0.91%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  7. 15Diabetes0.87%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  8. 16Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.83%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  9. 17Other digestive disease0.75%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  10. 18Brain cancer0.61%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.52%
  11. 19Falls0.56%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  12. 20COPD & chronic lung disease0.54%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.4%
  13. 21Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.53%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 14%
  14. 22Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.48%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  15. 23Stroke0.46%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.1%
  16. 24Pneumonia & flu0.46%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  17. 25Other lung disease0.45%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  18. 26Alcohol use disorder0.39%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.54%
  19. 27COVID-190.23%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  20. 28Drug use disorder0.22%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  21. 29Kidney disease0.20%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  22. 30Colorectal cancer0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  23. 31Other mental health conditions0.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  24. 32Liver cancer0.09%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  25. 33Kidney cancer0.07%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.57%
  26. 34Lung cancer0.07%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.9%
  27. 35Stomach cancer0.07%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.38%
  28. 36Melanoma (skin cancer)0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.34%
  29. 37Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.05%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.64%
  30. 38Pancreatic cancer0.03%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  31. 39Oesophageal cancer0.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.70%
  32. 40Complications around birth0.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  33. 41Prostate cancer<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  34. 42Bladder cancer<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.88%
  35. 43Breast cancer<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  36. 44Parkinson's disease<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  37. 45Dementia & Alzheimer's<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.4%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call or text 988, the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old boy in the United States, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for the United States (2023–2024), CDC. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 15–19 in the United States

How long people like this live: life expectancy.