Free risk check · real data

What is a 22-year-old woman in the United States most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country

Age

Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months

0.05%

1 in 2,186

Next 10 years

0.65%

1 in 154

Life expectancy

about 60 more years on average

The surpriseAt 22, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's accidental poisoning & overdose.

Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

01Accidental poisoning & overdose24%
0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
02Road accidents14%
0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.54%
03Suicide10%
0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.42%
04Homicide6.0%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
05Other causes3.7%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.9%
06Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)3.7%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.0%
07Pregnancy & childbirth2.7%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
08Heart failure & other heart disease2.7%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.3%

Show the other 39 causes33% together

09High blood pressure & other circulatory disease2.7%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.2%
10Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)2.5%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
11Other cancers2.1%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
12Diabetes2.0%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
13Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.8%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
14Other digestive disease1.8%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
15Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)1.6%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
16Breast cancer1.5%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
17Congenital conditions1.3%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
18Leukaemia & lymphoma1.3%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
19Other accidents1.2%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.53%
20Alcohol use disorder1.2%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
21Stroke1.1%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.0%
22Pneumonia & flu1.0%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
23Other lung disease0.96%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
24Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.88%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.8%
25COPD & chronic lung disease0.86%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.1%
26Brain cancer0.86%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.42%
27Kidney disease0.84%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
28Uterine & ovarian cancer0.70%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
29Colorectal cancer0.68%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
30Drug use disorder0.53%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
31Drowning0.53%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
32Cervical cancer0.48%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
33COVID-190.42%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
34Falls0.32%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
35Other mental health conditions0.32%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
36Stomach cancer0.27%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
37Liver cancer0.23%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.62%
38Melanoma (skin cancer)0.23%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
39Lung cancer0.22%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
40Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.10%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.25%
41Kidney cancer0.10%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
42Pancreatic cancer0.08%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
43Oesophageal cancer0.05%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.19%
44Bladder cancer0.02%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.33%
45Complications around birth<0.01%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
46Parkinson's disease<0.01%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
47Dementia & Alzheimer's<0.01%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 13%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call or text 988, the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 22-year-old woman in the United States, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for the United States (2023–2024), CDC. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: women aged 20–24 in the United States

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 22-year-old woman in the United States

Cervical screening (Pap test)
every 3 years, ages 21–29
Blood pressure check
every 3–5 years from 18 (every year from 40)
Flu vaccine
every fall — recommended for all adults
Hepatitis C test
once, ages 18–79
HIV test
at least once, ages 15–65

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Early heart attack or stroke in the family — cholesterol & heart-risk check
now, whatever your age — then as advised · ask your doctor
Breast or ovarian cancer in the family — risk check and genetic counselling
ask your doctor once — you may be offered earlier mammograms (often yearly from 40) or a gene test

Based on USPSTF recommendations and the CDC adult immunization schedule. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal

Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.