Free risk check · real data

What is a 47-year-old man in the United States most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country

Age

Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months

0.43%

1 in 234

Next 10 years

5.9%

1 in 17

Life expectancy

about 33 more years on average

Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

01Heart attack & coronary heart disease13%
0.75% chance over 10 years · lifetime 14%
02Accidental poisoning & overdose11%
0.66% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
03High blood pressure & other circulatory disease6.5%
0.39% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.2%
04Heart failure & other heart disease5.3%
0.31% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.1%
05Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)5.3%
0.31% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
06Suicide5.1%
0.30% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
07Diabetes4.5%
0.26% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
08Road accidents3.9%
0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.86%

Show the other 37 causes46% together

09Other causes3.3%
0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
10Stroke3.2%
0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.3%
11Colorectal cancer3.0%
0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
12Lung cancer2.9%
0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
13Other cancers2.7%
0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.3%
14Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.6%
0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
15Other digestive disease2.4%
0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
16Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)2.2%
0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
17Alcohol use disorder2.2%
0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.44%
18Pancreatic cancer1.7%
0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
19Kidney disease1.6%
0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
20COPD & chronic lung disease1.6%
0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.6%
21Homicide1.6%
0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
22Leukaemia & lymphoma1.3%
0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
23Other accidents1.3%
0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.70%
24Other lung disease1.3%
0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
25Liver cancer1.1%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
26Pneumonia & flu1.0%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
27Brain cancer1.0%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.51%
28Oesophageal cancer0.92%
0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.73%
29Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.89%
0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.67%
30Falls0.88%
0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
31Kidney cancer0.68%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.59%
32Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.67%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
33Stomach cancer0.58%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.39%
34COVID-190.53%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
35Prostate cancer0.49%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
36Drug use disorder0.44%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
37Congenital conditions0.36%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
38Melanoma (skin cancer)0.34%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.35%
39Drowning0.29%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
40Bladder cancer0.27%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.94%
41Dementia & Alzheimer's0.16%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.8%
42Other mental health conditions0.13%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
43Parkinson's disease0.08%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
44Breast cancer0.04%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
45Complications around birth<0.01%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call or text 988, the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 47-year-old man in the United States, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for the United States (2023–2024), CDC. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 45–49 in the United States

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 47-year-old man in the United States

Blood pressure check
every year from 40 (every 3–5 years before)
Colorectal cancer screening
ages 45–75 — a stool test (FIT) every year, or a colonoscopy every 10 years
Flu vaccine
every fall — recommended for all adults
Cholesterol & heart-risk check
from 40, every 5 years or as your doctor advises (earlier with risk factors)
Blood sugar test (diabetes)
every 3 years from 35
Hepatitis C test
once, ages 18–79
HIV test
at least once, ages 15–65

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Bowel cancer in the family — earlier bowel check
often a colonoscopy every 5 years from 40 (or 10 years before your relative's age at diagnosis, if earlier) · ask your doctor
Prostate cancer in the family — PSA test
from 45 (a father or brother diagnosed before 60), if you choose to be tested · ask your doctor

Based on USPSTF recommendations and the CDC adult immunization schedule. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal

Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.