Free risk check · real data

What is a 52-year-old woman in Italy most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country

Age

Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months

0.17%

1 in 590

Next 10 years

2.7%

1 in 37

Life expectancy

about 34 more years on average

Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

01Breast cancer13%
0.36% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
02Lung cancer9.7%
0.26% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
03Other cancers7.3%
0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
04Uterine & ovarian cancer7.0%
0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
05Colorectal cancer5.3%
0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
06Pancreatic cancer4.6%
0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
07Stroke3.9%
0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.3%
08Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)3.8%
0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%

Show the other 39 causes45% together

09Heart attack & coronary heart disease3.5%
0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.6%
10Other causes3.5%
0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.4%
11High blood pressure & other circulatory disease3.1%
0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 11%
12Leukaemia & lymphoma3.0%
0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
13Brain cancer2.6%
0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.46%
14Other digestive disease2.6%
0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
15Heart failure & other heart disease2.4%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.6%
16Stomach cancer2.2%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.90%
17Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.9%
0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
18Diabetes1.7%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.8%
19Suicide1.4%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
20Liver cancer1.4%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.73%
21Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)1.3%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.44%
22COPD & chronic lung disease1.3%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
23Other lung disease1.2%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
24Congenital conditions1.1%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
25COVID-191.1%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
26Mouth, throat & larynx cancer1.0%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.32%
27Melanoma (skin cancer)0.99%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.22%
28Kidney cancer0.85%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.35%
29Pneumonia & flu0.82%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
30Cervical cancer0.81%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
31Other accidents0.79%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
32Road accidents0.70%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
33Other mental health conditions0.69%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.29%
34Bladder cancer0.51%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.39%
35Kidney disease0.50%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
36Falls0.40%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.77%
37Oesophageal cancer0.40%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
38Dementia & Alzheimer's0.40%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.8%
39Parkinson's disease0.22%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
40Alcohol use disorder0.13%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
41Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.13%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
42Accidental poisoning & overdose0.12%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
43Homicide0.11%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
44Drowning0.07%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
45Drug use disorder0.06%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
46Complications around birth0.02%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
47Pregnancy & childbirth<0.01%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call Telefono Amico on 02 2327 2327 (normal call rate) — confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 52-year-old woman in Italy, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Italy (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: women aged 50–54 in Italy

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 52-year-old woman in Italy

Blood pressure check
every year from 40 (every 3 years before)
Bowel cancer screening (stool test)
every 2 years, ages 50–69 (stool test; some regions to 74)
Breast cancer screening (mammogram)
every 2 years, ages 50–69 (some regions 45–74)
Cervical screening (HPV test)
every 5 years, ages 30–64 (HPV test)
Cholesterol & heart-risk check
from 40 (men) / 50 (women), then as your doctor advises
Blood sugar test (diabetes)
every 3 years from 35

If you smoke or used to:

Lung cancer screening (low-dose CT)
if you smoke or smoked heavily, ages 50–74 — ask whether it's offered

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Bowel cancer in the family — earlier bowel check
often a colonoscopy every 5 years from 40 (or 10 years before your relative's age at diagnosis, if earlier) · ask your doctor
Breast or ovarian cancer in the family — risk check and genetic counselling
ask your doctor once — you may be offered earlier mammograms (often yearly from 40) or a gene test

Based on the Italian LEA screening programmes (regions vary) and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal

Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.