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Free risk check · real data

What is a 77-year-old man in Bulgaria most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
77
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
6.5%
1 in 15
Next 10 years
65%
about 7 in 10
Life expectancy
85
about 8 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart failure & other heart disease22%
    14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 23%
  2. 02Stroke21%
    14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 22%
  3. 03Heart attack & coronary heart disease13%
    8.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 14%
  4. 04High blood pressure & other circulatory disease12%
    7.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 12%
  5. 05Prostate cancer2.9%
    1.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  6. 06Colorectal cancer2.8%
    1.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  7. 07Lung cancer2.7%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  8. 08Pneumonia & flu2.7%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
Show the other 34 causes21% together
  1. 09Other digestive disease2.6%
    1.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  2. 10Kidney disease2.1%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  3. 11COVID-191.7%
    1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  4. 12Other cancers1.6%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  5. 13COPD & chronic lung disease1.5%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  6. 14Other lung disease1.5%
    0.99% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  7. 15Diabetes1.4%
    0.90% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  8. 16Bladder cancer1.1%
    0.70% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.88%
  9. 17Stomach cancer0.92%
    0.60% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.75%
  10. 18Pancreatic cancer0.78%
    0.51% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.65%
  11. 19Leukaemia & lymphoma0.67%
    0.44% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.54%
  12. 20Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.66%
    0.43% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.51%
  13. 21Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.63%
    0.41% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.48%
  14. 22Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.43%
    0.28% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.42%
  15. 23Liver cancer0.41%
    0.27% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
  16. 24Suicide0.35%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.29%
  17. 25Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.34%
    0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.28%
  18. 26Kidney cancer0.33%
    0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.24%
  19. 27Falls0.31%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
  20. 28Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.30%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  21. 29Brain cancer0.27%
    0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  22. 30Parkinson's disease0.25%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.23%
  23. 31Other causes0.21%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  24. 32Other accidents0.19%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  25. 33Road accidents0.16%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  26. 34Melanoma (skin cancer)0.14%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  27. 35Oesophageal cancer0.14%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  28. 36Dementia & Alzheimer's0.09%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  29. 37Breast cancer0.06%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  30. 38Drowning0.04%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  31. 39Accidental poisoning & overdose0.02%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  32. 40Homicide0.02%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  33. 41Other mental health conditions0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  34. 42Alcohol use disorder<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, free, confidential support is available.

For people like a 77-year-old man in Bulgaria, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Bulgaria (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 75–79 in Bulgaria

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 77-year-old man in Bulgaria

If you smoke or used to:

Based on Bulgaria's preventive check-up (NZOK, Ordinance No. 8) and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal
Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.