Odainn
Free risk check · real data

What is a 77-year-old man in Spain most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
77
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
3.4%
1 in 30
Next 10 years
46%
about 5 in 10
Life expectancy
88
about 11 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart failure & other heart disease7.9%
    3.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 10%
  2. 02Heart attack & coronary heart disease7.1%
    3.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.9%
  3. 03Lung cancer6.6%
    3.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
  4. 04Dementia & Alzheimer's6.2%
    2.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.6%
  5. 05Stroke5.5%
    2.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.4%
  6. 06Other lung disease5.4%
    2.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.6%
  7. 07COPD & chronic lung disease5.1%
    2.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.8%
  8. 08High blood pressure & other circulatory disease4.7%
    2.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.6%
Show the other 35 causes52% together
  1. 09Colorectal cancer4.5%
    2.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
  2. 10Other cancers4.4%
    2.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.8%
  3. 11Other causes4.4%
    2.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.5%
  4. 12Other digestive disease4.2%
    1.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.4%
  5. 13Prostate cancer3.4%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  6. 14Pneumonia & flu3.1%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.9%
  7. 15Diabetes2.7%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  8. 16Leukaemia & lymphoma2.4%
    1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  9. 17COVID-192.3%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  10. 18Kidney disease2.2%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  11. 19Bladder cancer2.0%
    0.91% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  12. 20Parkinson's disease1.7%
    0.79% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  13. 21Pancreatic cancer1.7%
    0.77% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  14. 22Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)1.6%
    0.74% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  15. 23Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.5%
    0.70% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  16. 24Liver cancer1.4%
    0.65% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.94%
  17. 25Stomach cancer1.2%
    0.53% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.86%
  18. 26Other accidents1.1%
    0.52% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  19. 27Falls1.0%
    0.47% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  20. 28Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.85%
    0.39% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.60%
  21. 29Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.66%
    0.30% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.40%
  22. 30Kidney cancer0.63%
    0.29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.48%
  23. 31Oesophageal cancer0.52%
    0.24% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.33%
  24. 32Suicide0.47%
    0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.34%
  25. 33Brain cancer0.46%
    0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.29%
  26. 34Melanoma (skin cancer)0.27%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  27. 35Road accidents0.19%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  28. 36Other mental health conditions0.10%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  29. 37Drowning0.07%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  30. 38Congenital conditions0.06%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  31. 39Alcohol use disorder0.06%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  32. 40Accidental poisoning & overdose0.04%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  33. 41Breast cancer0.04%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  34. 42Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.04%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  35. 43Homicide0.02%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 024, the suicide prevention line — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 77-year-old man in Spain, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Spain (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 75–79 in Spain

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 77-year-old man in Spain

If you smoke or used to:

Based on the Spanish National Health System screening programmes (regions vary) and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal
Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.