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Free risk check · real data

What is an 82-year-old man in Belgium most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
82
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
6.3%
1 in 16
Next 10 years
70%
about 7 in 10
Life expectancy
90
about 8 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart failure & other heart disease13%
    9.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 15%
  2. 02Dementia & Alzheimer's7.5%
    5.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.6%
  3. 03Heart attack & coronary heart disease7.1%
    5.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.9%
  4. 04Pneumonia & flu5.9%
    4.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.8%
  5. 05Stroke5.4%
    3.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.4%
  6. 06Other cancers4.7%
    3.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.5%
  7. 07COPD & chronic lung disease4.3%
    3.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
  8. 08Lung cancer4.0%
    2.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.3%
Show the other 35 causes48% together
  1. 09Other causes3.8%
    2.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.3%
  2. 10Other lung disease3.8%
    2.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
  3. 11Prostate cancer3.7%
    2.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
  4. 12Other digestive disease3.4%
    2.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
  5. 13COVID-193.3%
    2.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.3%
  6. 14Kidney disease2.9%
    2.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  7. 15High blood pressure & other circulatory disease2.8%
    2.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  8. 16Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.6%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  9. 17Falls2.4%
    1.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
  10. 18Colorectal cancer2.3%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  11. 19Parkinson's disease2.3%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  12. 20Leukaemia & lymphoma2.3%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  13. 21Other accidents1.9%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  14. 22Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)1.5%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  15. 23Bladder cancer1.4%
    0.98% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  16. 24Diabetes1.3%
    0.91% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  17. 25Pancreatic cancer1.3%
    0.88% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  18. 26Liver cancer0.79%
    0.55% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.65%
  19. 27Stomach cancer0.56%
    0.39% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.47%
  20. 28Oesophageal cancer0.54%
    0.38% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.41%
  21. 29Kidney cancer0.51%
    0.36% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.45%
  22. 30Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.41%
    0.29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.32%
  23. 31Suicide0.41%
    0.29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.39%
  24. 32Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.34%
    0.24% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.29%
  25. 33Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.33%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.29%
  26. 34Melanoma (skin cancer)0.30%
    0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  27. 35Other mental health conditions0.27%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.28%
  28. 36Brain cancer0.20%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  29. 37Road accidents0.12%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  30. 38Alcohol use disorder0.08%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  31. 39Accidental poisoning & overdose0.06%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  32. 40Breast cancer0.06%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  33. 41Drowning0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  34. 42Congenital conditions0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  35. 43Drug use disorder<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 1813 (Zelfmoordlijn) or 0800 32 123 (Centre de Prévention du Suicide) — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like an 82-year-old man in Belgium, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Belgium (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 80–84 in Belgium

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 82-year-old man in Belgium

If you smoke or used to:

Based on the Belgian regional screening programmes, INAMI/RIZIV rules and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal
Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.