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What is an 87-year-old woman in Bulgaria most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
87
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
13%
1 in 8
Next 10 years
91%
about 9 in 10
Life expectancy
92
about 5 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart failure & other heart disease28%
    26% chance over 10 years · lifetime 29%
  2. 02Stroke27%
    25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 27%
  3. 03High blood pressure & other circulatory disease16%
    14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 16%
  4. 04Heart attack & coronary heart disease15%
    14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 15%
  5. 05Other digestive disease1.6%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  6. 06Pneumonia & flu1.5%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  7. 07Kidney disease1.3%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  8. 08Other lung disease1.1%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
Show the other 33 causes8.6% together
  1. 09COVID-190.94%
    0.86% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.93%
  2. 10Colorectal cancer0.93%
    0.85% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.88%
  3. 11Diabetes0.92%
    0.84% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.87%
  4. 12COPD & chronic lung disease0.77%
    0.70% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.79%
  5. 13Breast cancer0.76%
    0.69% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.73%
  6. 14Other cancers0.65%
    0.59% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.64%
  7. 15Uterine & ovarian cancer0.40%
    0.36% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.37%
  8. 16Falls0.33%
    0.30% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
  9. 17Stomach cancer0.31%
    0.29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
  10. 18Pancreatic cancer0.28%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.27%
  11. 19Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.27%
    0.24% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  12. 20Lung cancer0.25%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.24%
  13. 21Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.19%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.19%
  14. 22Liver cancer0.17%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  15. 23Parkinson's disease0.17%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  16. 24Other causes0.15%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
  17. 25Bladder cancer0.14%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  18. 26Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.14%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
  19. 27Melanoma (skin cancer)0.11%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  20. 28Leukaemia & lymphoma0.10%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  21. 29Dementia & Alzheimer's0.10%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  22. 30Other accidents0.09%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  23. 31Cervical cancer0.08%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
  24. 32Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.06%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  25. 33Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.06%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  26. 34Suicide0.06%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  27. 35Brain cancer0.05%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  28. 36Kidney cancer0.05%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  29. 37Road accidents0.03%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  30. 38Accidental poisoning & overdose0.03%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  31. 39Oesophageal cancer0.02%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  32. 40Drowning<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  33. 41Homicide<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, free, confidential support is available.

For people like an 87-year-old woman in Bulgaria, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Bulgaria (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Full page with comparisons: women aged 85–89 in Bulgaria

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 87-year-old woman in Bulgaria

Based on Bulgaria's preventive check-up (NZOK, Ordinance No. 8) and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

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