Odainn
Free risk check · real data

What is an 87-year-old man in Latvia most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
87
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
15%
1 in 7
Next 10 years
92%
about 9 in 10
Life expectancy
92
about 5 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart attack & coronary heart disease31%
    29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 31%
  2. 02Stroke21%
    20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 21%
  3. 03High blood pressure & other circulatory disease9.0%
    8.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.1%
  4. 04Prostate cancer4.6%
    4.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.4%
  5. 05Heart failure & other heart disease4.2%
    3.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.2%
  6. 06Pneumonia & flu2.9%
    2.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  7. 07Dementia & Alzheimer's2.6%
    2.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  8. 08Other causes2.4%
    2.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
Show the other 33 causes22% together
  1. 09Other cancers2.0%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  2. 10Colorectal cancer1.9%
    1.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  3. 11Lung cancer1.7%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  4. 12Kidney disease1.7%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  5. 13Other digestive disease1.7%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  6. 14Diabetes1.5%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  7. 15COPD & chronic lung disease1.4%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  8. 16Bladder cancer1.1%
    1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  9. 17COVID-191.0%
    0.96% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  10. 18Stomach cancer0.85%
    0.78% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.78%
  11. 19Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.76%
    0.70% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.72%
  12. 20Leukaemia & lymphoma0.76%
    0.70% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.74%
  13. 21Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.74%
    0.68% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.68%
  14. 22Pancreatic cancer0.66%
    0.61% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.65%
  15. 23Kidney cancer0.62%
    0.57% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.63%
  16. 24Falls0.57%
    0.52% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.54%
  17. 25Other accidents0.41%
    0.38% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.40%
  18. 26Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.39%
    0.36% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.40%
  19. 27Parkinson's disease0.35%
    0.33% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.35%
  20. 28Suicide0.27%
    0.24% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  21. 29Liver cancer0.25%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.23%
  22. 30Other lung disease0.25%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.23%
  23. 31Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.23%
    0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.23%
  24. 32Oesophageal cancer0.16%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  25. 33Brain cancer0.15%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  26. 34Melanoma (skin cancer)0.14%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  27. 35Road accidents0.13%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  28. 36Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.11%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  29. 37Drowning0.10%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  30. 38Accidental poisoning & overdose0.04%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  31. 39Other mental health conditions0.03%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  32. 40Homicide0.03%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  33. 41Alcohol use disorder0.01%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call the national crisis line on 116 123 — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like an 87-year-old man in Latvia, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Latvia (2018, 2019 and 2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 85–89 in Latvia

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 87-year-old man in Latvia

If you smoke or used to:

Based on Latvian National Health Service screening and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal
Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.