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What is an 87-year-old man in Portugal most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
87
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
11%
1 in 9
Next 10 years
89%
about 9 in 10
Life expectancy
92
about 5 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart failure & other heart disease11%
    9.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 11%
  2. 02Stroke8.9%
    7.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.9%
  3. 03Dementia & Alzheimer's8.6%
    7.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.7%
  4. 04Pneumonia & flu8.4%
    7.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.6%
  5. 05Other lung disease6.8%
    6.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.0%
  6. 06High blood pressure & other circulatory disease5.6%
    5.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.8%
  7. 07Other causes5.6%
    4.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.6%
  8. 08Heart attack & coronary heart disease4.9%
    4.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.8%
Show the other 34 causes41% together
  1. 09Prostate cancer4.1%
    3.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
  2. 10Other digestive disease3.7%
    3.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.7%
  3. 11COVID-193.4%
    3.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  4. 12COPD & chronic lung disease3.4%
    3.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  5. 13Other cancers3.0%
    2.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  6. 14Diabetes2.9%
    2.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  7. 15Kidney disease2.8%
    2.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  8. 16Colorectal cancer2.4%
    2.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  9. 17Other accidents2.2%
    2.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  10. 18Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.0%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  11. 19Lung cancer1.6%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  12. 20Parkinson's disease1.2%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  13. 21Leukaemia & lymphoma1.2%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  14. 22Bladder cancer1.0%
    0.93% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  15. 23Falls1.0%
    0.92% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  16. 24Stomach cancer1.0%
    0.90% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.99%
  17. 25Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.64%
    0.57% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.59%
  18. 26Pancreatic cancer0.53%
    0.47% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.49%
  19. 27Liver cancer0.47%
    0.42% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.45%
  20. 28Suicide0.38%
    0.33% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.35%
  21. 29Kidney cancer0.32%
    0.29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
  22. 30Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.31%
    0.27% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.29%
  23. 31Brain cancer0.23%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  24. 32Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.21%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  25. 33Oesophageal cancer0.20%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  26. 34Melanoma (skin cancer)0.18%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  27. 35Road accidents0.11%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  28. 36Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.10%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  29. 37Other mental health conditions0.05%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  30. 38Breast cancer0.04%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  31. 39Congenital conditions0.04%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  32. 40Drowning0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  33. 41Accidental poisoning & overdose0.02%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  34. 42Alcohol use disorder0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 1411, the national suicide prevention line — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like an 87-year-old man in Portugal, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Portugal (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 85–89 in Portugal

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 87-year-old man in Portugal

If you smoke or used to:

Based on the Portuguese DGS screening programmes and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal
Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.